The most exciting weekend of professional football is among us. Wild Card Weekend. For anyone who doesn’t know, Wild Card Weekend is the first weekend of playoffs for the National Football League. The seven eligible teams for each conference have made the playoffs and they all play this weekend to get the playoffs started, excluding the one seed, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions respectively. After an eighteen-week season with only one by-week, the league starts the elimination rounds where you must win to stay alive.
There are six games spanning from January 11 to January 13. I will be predicting the outcome of each game and reasoning behind my decisions.
To start off the weekend, the Los Angeles Chargers travel to Houston to face the Texans on Saturday. It’s very hard to ignore head coach Jim Harbough’s dominant defense ranking first in points allowed, 71 less than Houston. After the young quarterback ‘s exciting rookie season, CJ Stroud’s sophomore season has been lackluster in comparison, and this has been emphasized in the last few weeks. He has had a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio in the last 3 weeks and that is the opposite of what you’d like from your quarterback going into the first round of the playoffs.
To add to that, LA’s defense allows the least points in the NFL and has the second least offensive turnovers. All these stats point to a quiet domination from the Chargers and their first-year head coach.
To close out the first night, the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to their divisional rival, the red-hot Baltimore Ravens. If you follow either of these teams consistently, the biggest issue with this matchup is the struggle the Ravens seem to have against the Steelers, more specifically Lamar Jackson does. Over his career, his passer rating is an abnormal 73.1 compared to his 119.6 this year.
This year may be different, with a clean 7-3 record against playoff teams compared to the Steeler’s 4-6 record. Pittsburgh is also on a 4-game losing streak with the acknowledgement that it was 4 great teams. I think Lamar can finally get over the hump with his potentially MVP caliber season.
The only chance the Black and Gold have is to come out fast winning the turnover battle which their defense has shown they can do, tying for the most turnovers in the league. With the Ravens having the 3rd best offensive turnover percentage, I don’t expect the Steelers to be able to stay with them.
After the Broncos slip into the 7 seed, they get a tough matchup traveling across the country to Buffalo. The Bills are 10-1 in the last 11 weeks ignoring week 18, where they sat most of their starters. The Broncos have some great playmakers, especially their star cornerback, Pat Surtain II. He will arguably shut down your team’s best receiver, but Josh Allen lacks an outright favorite target.
The Broncos have a great defense, but I think Josh Allen and the Bills have a better offense. With the distance traveled, momentum in the Bills favor, and the “Bills Mafia,” their passionate fanbase, Buffalo should come out comfortably on top.
In the afternoon slate, the Philadelphia Eagles host the Green Bay Packers. These teams are fairly equal offensively and the outcome of this game will come down to injuries and defense. The Eagles quarterback went down in week 16 with a concussion and is currently listed as questionable along with their dominant receiver, A.J. Brown. The Packers’ quarterback also has been battling injuries this season but is listed as healthy.
The biggest point of interest for the Eagles is their abnormal balance on the offensive end compared to the Packers having a normal balance. Typically, teams pass for a decent amount more than they rush for due to the average yards per completion being much more than the average yards per run. Philly has a 5th ranked offense in yards but ranks 29th in passing yards per game. Without the formerly Second Team All-Pro quarterback Jalen Hurts, they would be in trouble, hurting their passing game further. Fortunately, the Eagles organization is confident he will be ready to play on Sunday.
The teams both average the same average number of points, and they each have the potential to score the ball consistently. I think the Packers will struggle too much with the Eagles defense ranking number 1 in total defensive yards allowed, pass yards allowed and second in points allowed. As long as Jalen Hurts plays, the Eagles will be able to shut down the Green Bay Packers.
The biggest toss up of the weekend is arguably the Washington Commanders versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The defenses complement each other with a top 5 passing defense with Washington and Tampa Bay having a top five rushing defense and both struggle in their counterpart respectively finishing in the bottom three.
These teams both have fiery offenses helmed by exciting QB’s, but the Buc’s offense is undeniably scary being top five in yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and points. Being balanced at that level is rare, and they also convert 3rd downs at higher odds than any team, consistently giving them more opportunities to control the game.
The Commanders will have to play their best to win, but they have the resume and talent to do so. All things considered.Tampa Bay has the edge, but it could go either way.
To end the wildcard games, the dangerous #5 seed Vikings play the #4 Rams. Even though the Vikings have won four more games than the Rams, due to how the NFL is set up, this game was set to play in Los Angeles.
Unfortunately, due to ongoing wildfires in California, the game has been moved to Glendale Arizona, the home of the Cardinals. The goal was to attempt to keep the higher seed home field advantage but moving the game 300 miles East will definitely help the Purple People Eaters.
These two teams notably played earlier this season in a hard-fought matchup where the Rams came out on top. Before the Vikings lost to the Lions last Sunday, they had a 9-game winning streak, not losing for the rest of 2024 following the earlier matchup.
The Vikings clearly struggled against the Lions, but the score looks worse than how the game went. In the span of 15 minutes, the Vikings traveled deep in the redzone 4 times and stalled out each time resulting in a measly two field goals.
Having that occur, kills your momentum and in the following press conferences of the 31-9 loss. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell acknowledges the issue and knows what needs to be different. With the motivation of a game like that, having already lost to the Rams earlier in the year, and their great season on the brink of extinction, the team in purple has many nonstatistical advantages.
In the number’s realm, the Vikings trump the Rams in most stats by a decent margin. Total yards, rushing yards, points, 3rd down conversion offensively and defensively. The Vikings share the lead of most turnovers forced in the league, but the Rams do a great job in keeping the ball safe having the second least, while forcing a fair amount of turnovers themselves. There aren’t many more stats that I found where these teams separate themselves from each other so I strongly believe the Vikings will take this game.
I acknowledge my biases as a lifelong Minnesota fan but there isn’t much to give LA the edge besides their win in week 8. It loses relevance when you consider it has been 11 weeks since they have fought, and teams can change their whole philosophy in that time.
After a weekend full of professional football, there will be 6 less teams in the Super Bowl race and no one truly knows how that is going to shake out, and that’s the beauty of it. I am excited to see how the ‘wildness’ plays out.